Investor, retired money manager/founder of money management firms in Hong Kong. Enjoy mixing house + techno tunes. I don't run any paid service. No advice.

Joined August 2018
Observation - The indices are either below their June lows or flirting with those levels but the highest quality recurring revenue growth stocks are trading way above their spring lows.
38
27
1
621
Prior spikes were followed by additional declines - Chart from @McClellanOsc
15
14
1
217
Persistent inversion in 10Yr/2Yr UST yield curve - This has *always* been followed by a recession!
37
66
4
504
Dow Jones Industrial Average, Dow Jones Transportation Average and NYSE Composite Index have closed below the June lows. According to my trend following indicators, the primary and short-term trends for stocks are currently DOWN.
40
41
7
557
The Fed is driving the US economy into the ground - After blowing a massive bubble in 2020, the central bank is now sowing the seeds for a bust. After a historic surge in 2020/2021, the US M2 (money supply) YoY change is dropping at the fastest pace ever! Chart from @ycharts
15
42
4
348
$NDX - primary + short-term trends are DOWN. - Price on pink shaded area (primary downtrend) - Dashed line < blue solid line (short-term downtrend)
16
9
1
196
In 2020/2021, the Fed (via QE and ZIRP) blew one of the biggest asset bubbles and it didn't see any inflation. In 2022, the Fed (via QT and massive rate hikes) is creating an epic bust and now it sees stubborn inflation! Rearview mirror driving by the biggest central bank...
46
73
9
839
Commodities have rolled over, housing is in trouble, stocks are way down, high yield bonds are deflating, forward looking indicators are showing inflation has peaked.... The backward looking Fed is super tight and driving the economy towards recession.
16
20
2
333
As long the Fed is hiking rates, risk assets likely to remain under pressure and growth stocks will form bases (notable, most SaaS above May lows). If history is any guide, the next sustainable rally in risk likely to come about after the Fed pivot (pause in rate hikes).
13
14
305
This cycle has been super severe. Although I foresaw the top of the previous bull-market late last year, my timing in 2022 has been off! I haven't been at the top of my game and this experience has reminded me yet again - DO NOT FIGHT THE FED. Live and learn!
37
22
2
719
Finally, the 2-Yr UST yield and real 10-Yr rate are suggesting that $SPX fair value is ~14X NTM P/E multiple. This implies that $SPX might bottom ~3,000-3,200.
41
60
5
586
$NDX NASDAQ100 has sliced through 40-month EMA - Hawkish Fed hurting risk assets...
89
51
7
495
Growth stocks likely to outperform over next year?
67
52
9
663
Interesting to observe that despite a hawkish Fed, the 10-Yr and 30-Yr UST yields declined today! One day doesn't make a trend but perhaps the bond market is finally beginning to focus on the looming economic trouble? A peak in long dated rates should be a plus for software.
40
24
2
391
Puru Saxena retweeted
As the end of Q3 approaches, #investors are curious to know where the #market is headed📊🤔 Join us on September 27th at 2:00PM ET/1:00PM CT, as @saxena_puru provides trending insights & tips for new potential #investment opportunities. Register now! ➡️ tinyurl.com/2p97nj2c
11
6
3
110
My new mix "Transitions" is now out - Hope you enjoy the sound of the underground 🎶🎵 soundcloud.com/djpsax/transi…
32
6
1
221
Adobe buying Figma at 50X TTM recurring revenue! Public market valuations are way lower....
44
15
8
385
FIGMA financials - $400m ARR Revenue growth ~100%YoY Net dollar retention 150%+ Gross margin > 90% Acquisition valuation ---> 50X TTM ARR
23
12
1
203